No change seen in PL QUANTIFI’S Multi-Asset Dynamic Portfolios between 1st October,2021 and 1st Dec,2021
(Source : Google Finance)
Nifty has now fallen by almost 7% since its highs of 18,600 level around 18th October.
Why didn’t PL Quantifi’s Agile Asset Allocator (AAA) or India Millennial Portfolio (IMP) or Wealth for Women(WFW) portfolio trigger a rebalance?
Firstly, what are these portfolios ?
The 3 portfolios are balanced portfolios investing in multiple assets (Equity, Gold, Bonds, Liquid) and are less riskier than just investing in “Equity Portfolios”.
They help you in 2 things clearly:
- Protect Wealth in Equity Downcycles
- Build New Wealth in Equity Upcycles
However the 3 portfolios slightly differ from each other.
The Risk in India Millennial Portfolio is more than risk in Agile Asset Allocator. Wealth for Women being the least aggressive.
Simply, the more aggressive a portfolio, the more you hold equities vs other asset classes. Choose the portfolio that suits you best !
Coming back, any rebalance in the existing portfolios means EITHER to Buy More Equities OR to Sell Equities at these levels.
Also let’s get clear, when we refer to Equities, it means India (Largecap, Midcap) + US Equities (Nasdaq) for these portfolios.
Let’s understand Why should we NOT Buy or NOT Sell more Equities just yet?
If you buy more Equities or increase Equities as a % of the portfolio at these levels, it means we are expecting the markets to reverse sooner or later from here.
If you Sell more Equities or decrease Equities as a % of the portfolio at these levels, it means we are expecting the markets to not reverse from here and stay at these levels for a long time.
Is the reversal to Buy Equities OR the downward structure in Equities to sell, really confirmed?
“As of now” we see US, Europe Equity Markets and Emerging Equites including India indicating a RISK OFF sentiment (Simply put, RISK OFF in Equities means lesser demand for Stocks globally leading to a fall).
But there are a host of other factors to watch out for…
And PL Quantifi has a Suite of 9 Quant meters that help watch this for you – Macroeconomic Cycle, Equity Market Cycle, Monetary Cycle, Global Risk Appetite, Trending assets, Technicals ,etc.
If only 2 meters out of 9 meters indicate something, it doesn’t confirm anything.
Only when the Right Confluence or Sangam of few Meters give a confirmation to either a buy/sell, you shall get a logical trigger to increase/decrease Equities in the Quantifi’s portfolio you have invested in.
So,as a good Risk Management practice, Buying/selling equities at these levels for the Portfolios is not something we would do.
It will be like Speculating or Guessing or Emotionally taking decisions for short-term profits/losses — ignoring what Rules and Data has to indicate or confirm.
One of the many reasons for you to pay & access these portfolios is us being Rational, following Rules & Data and not letting Human bias of Greed or Fear hamper your Wealth Growth.
Also, the way our Quant Model is designed, the change in the portfolio can happen at any time but there are higher chances of portfolio changes around the 7th/8th of every month.
Till then let’s stop thinking about short term gains and let’s zoom out! These portfolios are meant to Build Wealth for its clients in the medium-term horizon.
Stick to the 3 Year Horizon as suggested by Data-backed Backtest.
Let us remember, TIMING DOESN’T MATTER AS MUCH AS TIME IN THE MARKET. (Now you also know why the Title… )
For info, around 30th September,2021, within Equities, we reduced exposure to Domestic Largecap and increased Nifty Midcap exposure.
However OVERALL, we had increased our “total” exposure to equities by 10-20% and we were almost 50-65% on Equities depending on the risk profiles of each portfolio.
A quick performance update for the last 1 month: Staying true to its objective of “Protecting the Downside”, Quantifi’s Dynamic Asset Allocation portfolios — IMP, AAA, WFW have fallen lesser than Nifty 50.
Hope we’ve cleared your doubts !
Would love it if you could Spread a word for PL Quantifi’s portfolios with your friends and family.
Chat Now with LILA for the portfolios: https://bit.ly/AskLILAforWFW